As we consider the electability of candidates, namely Sarah Palin, we first must consider the candidates floors. A “floor” is a candidate’s guaranteed minimum percentage based on current polling data, accounting for all factors. Obama’s floor, or guaranteed vote, according to analysis of current polling is 43%. What this means is that 43% of people will vote for Barack Obama no matter who his opponent is. It could be much higher, but probably not any lower. This number is arrived at by reviewing 6 months of polling date from all polling firms. This is Obama’s floor because, depending on his opponent, his support grows or shrinks, but rarely below 43%.
Elites Way Off on Palin Electability: Part 1 – The Floor « read more at Poll Insider
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