Key House Races: One Ounce of Gold Can Change History

Click here for a comprehensive searchable list of Key House Races

Current projections: we can turn this election on its head:

Rank	District		Democrat	Seat	Republican	Experts	Avg.	District
1	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	Likely R	2.2	LA	3
2	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	Likely R	2.2	NY	29
3	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	Likely R	2.2	TN	6
4	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	Likely R	2.0	AR	2
5	WA	8	Suzan DelBene	Incumbent R	Dave Reichert	Likely R	1.7	WA	8
6	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	Leans R	1.5	IL	11
7	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	Leans R	1.3	CO	4
8	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	Leans R	1.3	FL	24
9	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	Leans R	1.3	IN	8
10	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	Leans R	1.3	KS	3
11	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	Leans R	1.3	OH	15
12	FL	25	Joe Garcia	Open R	David Rivera	Leans R	1.2	FL	25
13	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	Leans R	1.2	TX	17
14	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	Leans R	1.0	AZ	1
15	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	Leans R	1.0	PA	3
16	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	Leans R	1.0	TN	8
17	CA	3	Ami Bera	Incumbent R	Dan Lungren	Leans R	0.8	CA	3
18	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	Leans R	0.8	MD	1
19	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	0.8	MI	1
20	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	Leans R	0.8	OH	1
21	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	Leans R	0.8	PA	11
22	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	Leans R	0.8	VA	2
23	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	Leans R	0.8	VA	5
24	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	Leans R	0.8	WA	3
25	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	Leans R	0.7	AR	1
26	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	Leans R	0.7	NH	1
27	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	Leans R	0.7	NH	2
28	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	Leans R	0.7	NM	2
29	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	Toss-Up	0.5	FL	8
30	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	0.5	MS	1
31	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	0.5	PA	7
32	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	Toss-Up	0.5	WI	7
33	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	Toss-Up	0.3	AZ	5
34	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	Toss-Up	0.3	FL	2
35	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	0.3	MI	7
36	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	Toss-Up	0.3	ND	AL
37	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	Toss-Up	0.3	OH	16
38	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	0.3	PA	8
39	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	0.3	SD	AL
40	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	Toss-Up	0.3	WI	8
41	HI	1	Colleen Hanabusa	Incumbent R	Charles Djou	Toss-Up	0.2	HI	1
42	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	Toss-Up	0.2	GA	8
43	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	0.2	IL	14
44	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	Toss-Up	0.2	IN	9
45	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	Toss-Up	0.2	NV	3
46	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	0.2	NY	19
47	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	Toss-Up	0.2	SC	5
48	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	0.0	NC	8
49	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	-0.2	CO	3
50	IL	10	Dan Seals	Open R	Bob Dold	Toss-Up	-0.2	IL	10
51	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	-0.2	NY	24
52	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	-0.2	WV	1
53	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	-0.3	AZ	8
54	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	Toss-Up	-0.3	CA	11
55	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	-0.3	IL	17
56	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	-0.3	NY	23
57	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	Toss-Up	-0.3	PA	10
58	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	Toss-Up	-0.5	AL	2
59	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	-0.5	MA	10
60	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	Leans D	-0.7	GA	2
61	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	Leans D	-0.7	IA	3
62	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	Leans D	-0.7	NJ	3
63	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	Leans D	-0.7	OH	18
64	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	Leans D	-0.7	TX	23
65	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	Leans D	-0.8	KY	6
66	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	Leans D	-0.8	MO	4
67	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	Leans D	-0.8	NM	1
68	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	Leans D	-0.8	NY	1
69	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	Leans D	-0.8	OR	5
70	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	Leans D	-0.8	VA	9
71	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	Leans D	-1.0	PA	12
72	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	Leans D	-1.0	FL	22
73	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	Leans D	-1.0	IN	2
74	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	Leans D	-1.0	NY	20
75	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	Leans D	-1.0	OH	13
76	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	Leans D	-1.2	CA	47
77	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	Leans D	-1.2	CT	4
78	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	Leans D	-1.2	ID	1
79	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	-1.2	MI	9
80	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Leans D	-1.2	TN	4
81	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	Leans D	-1.2	VA	11
82	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	Leans D	-1.2	WA	2
83	DE	AL	John Carney	Open R	Glen Urquhart	Leans D	-1.3	DE	AL
84	LA	2	Cedric Richmond	Incumbent R	Joseph Cao	Leans D	-1.3	LA	2
85	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	Leans D	-1.3	NY	13
86	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	Likely D	-1.7	CT	5
87	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	Likely D	-1.7	NC	4
88	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	Likely D	-1.7	NY	25
89	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	Likely D	-1.8	MN	1
90	NC	7	Mike McIntyre	Incumbent D	Ilario Pantano	Likely D	-1.8	NC	7
91	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	Likely D	-1.8	PA	4
92	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	Likely D	-1.8	PA	17
93	WI	3	Ron Kind	Incumbent D	Bruce Evers	Likely D	-1.8	WI	3
94	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	-1.8	WV	3
95	OH	6	Charlie Wilson	Incumbent D	Bill Johnson	Likely D	-2.0	OH	6
96	CA	20	Jim Costa	Incumbent D	Andy Vidak	Likely D	-2.2	CA	20
97	MS	4	Gene Taylor	Incumbent D	Steven Palazzo	Likely D	-2.2	MS	4
98	NC	2	Bob Etheridge	Incumbent D	Renee Ellmers	Likely D	-2.2	NC	2
99	CO	7	Ed Perlmutter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	Likely D	-2.3	CO	7
100	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	Likely D	-2.3	IL	8